Matteo Berrettini vs Jacob Fearnley Head-to-Head Stats, Results & Performance Comparison

• In the last six months, Berrettini has excelled in second serve performance, securing 48.97% of points compared to Fearnley's 45.85%. Is this a significant factor for predicting a winner? It is indeed highly correlated with match prediction accuracy.
• Evaluating recent return game stats, Fearnley slightly outperforms Berrettini on second serve returns, achieving 44.79% while Berrettini is at 43.36%. First serve return stats show Fearnley leading with 23.53% over Berrettini’s 20.8%.
• Under pressure, Berrettini appears more resilient, saving 64.12% of breakpoints compared to Fearnley’s 58.44%, providing a potential edge in critical moments.
• An annual overview reveals Berrettini has won 67.24% of his matches, whereas Fearnley boasts a higher win rate of 74.67%, which helps frame overall head-to-head comparison.
• Surface-specific performance indicates Berrettini thrives on Grass with a win rate of 79%, whereas Fearnley's strength lies on I.hard surfaces with an 82% win record.
• Fearnley predominantly competes in Challengers/ITF tournaments, winning 86.05%, while Berrettini plays mostly on the Main tour, winning 71.88%. How does this affect their match-up? Their experiences offer different strengths relative to competition level.
• Considering opponent quality, Berrettini has faced a higher average ranked opponent of 64.78 compared to Fearnley's 189.33, suggesting Berrettini may have honed his skills against tougher competition.
• In potential deciding sets, Fearnley shows a strong track record with an 86% win rate, surpassing Berrettini’s 50% success rate in similar scenarios.
• Recent form on breakpoint conversion favors Berrettini, who has converted 33.33% of opportunities compared to Fearnley’s 28.46%. Could this influence the outcome during pivotal points?

Editorial Prediction (May 9, 2025, UTC):

Analyzing the match-up between Berrettini and Fearnley involves evaluating various performance metrics, from second serve success to breakpoint conversion efficiency. Berrettini's proficiency on grass and solid breakpoint saving ability may give him the upper hand in tight situations. However, Fearnley's superior record in deciding sets and his edge in return games highlight his tenacity and ability to perform under pressure.

Each player has excelled on different surfaces, with Berrettini impressing on Grass and Fearnley on I.hard courts. This difference in surface mastery might not come into play unless they face off on these surfaces. Furthermore, Berrettini's experience against higher-ranked opponents suggests his competitive edge, especially in a main tour context, could prove beneficial.

Overall, while Fearnley's win percentage is notable, the context of competition level and Berrettini's track record against tougher opponents provides a more reliable benchmark. Given these factors, Berrettini is arguably more likely to secure victory in this upcoming match.